H.A.A.

Hybrid
Asset Allocation

Four assets at once, out on an inflation warning

HAA balances four asset categories — US and foreign equities, real assets (REITs, commodities), and Treasuries — across an eight-asset risky universe. A single canary asset, TIP (US TIPS), gates the regime: when TIP's 13612U momentum goes non-positive, HAA reads it as a 'rising-yield' shock and rotates fully into cash — the better of BIL (1-3 month T-bills) and IEF (intermediate Treasuries).

When the canary stays bullish, HAA holds the top four risky assets by 13612U at 1/4 each — but this is where the 'hybrid' in its name comes from: any of those four whose own momentum is non-positive is replaced by cash, so a month can be part invested and part defensive. One bad asset in the top four means 25% cash. The TIPS-canary gate makes HAA particularly responsive to the kind of inflation/yield regime change that hurt traditional 60/40 portfolios in 2022.

Paper · Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) — 2023

Published backtest · Dec 1970 – Dec 2022
Worst fall, peak to trough−9.7%
Annualized return15.9%

Backtested results do not predict future returns.

HAA-Balanced (G8/T4, L=1), as reported in the source paper (Fig 6). The fall is measured at month-end — within a month it ran deeper.

Today's Decision

The latest closing prices, run through the rule — what it would say if today were rebalance day. Not in force until the next month-end, so act on it in the first days of a month.