V.A.A.
Vigilant
Asset Allocation
All-in on one winner, out at the first bad sign
VAA splits its universe into four offensive assets (US large cap, international developed, emerging markets, US aggregate bonds) and three defensive assets (corporate bonds, intermediate Treasuries, short Treasuries). Each month it scores every asset using the 13612W momentum signal — a weighted blend of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns.
The strategy goes fully into the single best-scoring offensive asset whenever all four offensive assets show positive momentum. As soon as even one offensive asset prints a non-positive score, VAA rotates entirely into the best-scoring defensive asset. The aggressive concentration plus the strict "all-positive" gate gives VAA its characteristic profile: high upside in trending markets, fast retreat at the first sign of breadth deterioration.
Paper · Breadth Momentum and Vigilant Asset Allocation (VAA): Winning More by Losing Less — 2017
Backtested results do not predict future returns.
VAA-G4 on SPY/EFA/EEM/AGG, as reported in the source paper (note 16). The fall is measured at month-end — within a month it ran deeper.