B.A.A.

Bold
Asset Allocation

Strictest guard: one warning and it's fully out

BAA tightens DAA's canary gate into a 'unanimous AND' rule: all four canaries (SPY, VWO, VEA, BND) must show positive 13612W momentum to enter offensive mode. A single bearish canary sends the whole portfolio into the defensive sleeve — the top three of seven bond-and-hedge assets by SMA12, equally weighted, with any pick trailing BIL replaced by BIL itself.

When all four canaries are bullish, BAA holds the top six of twelve risky assets at 1/6 each. The dual-signal design is the point: a fast 13612W filter on the canary so the gate reacts quickly, and a slow SMA12 ranking on both sleeves so the holdings themselves turn over less. Unlike HAA, a falling asset that still ranks in the top six is held — the paper applies no absolute-momentum filter to the offensive selection.

Paper · Bold Asset Allocation: A Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy with Aggressive Crash Protection — 2022

Published backtest · Dec 1970 – Jun 2022
Worst fall, peak to trough−8.7%
Annualized return14.6%

Backtested results do not predict future returns.

BAA-G12, as reported in the source paper (Fig 3). The fall is measured at month-end — within a month it ran deeper.

Today's Decision

The latest closing prices, run through the rule — what it would say if today were rebalance day. Not in force until the next month-end, so act on it in the first days of a month.